When Income Tells the Truth and the Price Does Not How to Identify a Cat-3 Deal — and How to Handle It Without Burning the Bridge

When Income Tells the Truth and the Price Does Not How to Identify a Cat-3 Deal — and How to Handle It Without Burning the Bridge

When Income Tells the Truth and the Price Does Not

How to Identify a Cat-3 Deal — and How to Handle It Without Burning the Bridge

Written by Jai Thompson


Who I Am and How We Underwrite

I manage a private equity platform deploying $13M–$18M per quarter across multiple real estate asset classes, including RV parks, MHPs, MF, hospitality, and specialty income assets.

Our model is asset-based, income-first, escrow-directed, and execution-driven. We close fast, but we never close emotionally. Income speaks first, structure second, price last.

This article explains how to identify a Cat-3 deal — and how to handle it correctly so you protect your time, credibility, and broker relationships.


The Setup: When a Deal Looks Good — Until You Run the Math

On paper, these deals usually check boxes:

  • Strong location

  • Real, verifiable NOI

  • Decent physical condition

  • Solid demand narrative

But once you slow down and underwrite the NOI, the story changes.

This is where discipline matters.


The 10 Most Important Things to Look At — and Why

1. NOI Is Real, but Capped

The income is stabilized. This is not a turnaround.
Growth exists, but it is incremental, not explosive.

Why it matters:
At a disciplined 10% cap, value is ≈ $5.1M, not $8M+. Income sets the ceiling, not marketing.


2. Asking Price Reflects Retail Cap Rates

When pricing implies a ~6% cap, you are no longer buying income — you are buying cap compression.

Why it matters:
That pricing belongs to trophy assets with newer infrastructure, higher occupancy, and lower OpEx. This asset profile does not qualify.


3. This Is the Definition of a Cat-3 Deal

Cat-3 = price divorced from income.

The seller is selling:

  • Narrative

  • Market hype

  • Future upside

Not what the asset produces today.

Why it matters:
Cat-3 deals mean:

  • Long negotiation runway

  • No urgency

  • Emotional seller anchors

Time gets burned if you chase them.


4. Expense Ratio Is Too High for the Asset Class

An expense ratio in the ~44% range is heavy for an RV park.

Typical inclusions:

  • Water

  • Sewer

  • Trash

  • Gas

  • Cable

Why it matters:
Best-in-class RV parks operate closer to 35%–38%. Utilities — especially in hot markets — quietly cap NOI growth.


5. Occupancy Is Not Fully Stabilized

Occupancy in the 85%–90% range is respectable, but not best-in-class.

Why it matters:
You are being asked to pay full pricing without receiving full utilization.


6. Age Risk Is Real

Older assets bring:

  • Underground utility risk

  • Sewer line exposure

  • Electrical system cycles

Why it matters:
CapEx does not ask permission. It arrives on its own schedule.


7. Rent Upside Exists — But It’s Modest and Slow

There may be rent upside, but increases are:

  • Politically sensitive

  • Tenant-dependent

  • Gradual

Why it matters:
This is not fast money. It is operational grind and must be priced conservatively.


8. Price per Pad Is a Distraction

Price-per-pad metrics can look fine on paper.

Why it matters:
Pads don’t pay lenders.
Pads don’t fund reserves.
NOI does.


9. Portfolio Language Is Often a Seller Tool

When an asset is pitched as part of a portfolio, ask why.

Why it matters:
Often this is a liquidity strategy, not added value. Strong assets get used to justify weaker pricing elsewhere.


10. DOM Never Lies

Extended DOM is not accidental.

Why it matters:
If pricing aligned with NOI, capital would already be deployed.


Red Flags You Must Call Out — Calmly

  • Price not supported by NOI
    What to say: “We underwrite off NOI, not marketing caps.”

  • High utility burden
    What to say: “Utilities materially cap NOI growth and must reflect in price.”

  • Older infrastructure without reserves
    What to say: “We need protection for deferred CapEx risk.”

  • Fantasy cap-rate expectations
    What to say: “We buy certainty, not compression.”


What To Do Instead of Chasing

Step 1: Anchor to NOI, Not the Ask

  • 10% cap = disciplined value

  • 9% cap = stretch
    Anything beyond that is speculation.


Step 2: Classify It Clearly

Use clean language:

“This is a solid asset, but at this pricing it’s a Cat-3.
The NOI does not support the ask.”


Step 3: Engage Only With Structure

You do not negotiate emotion.

You say:

“If ownership wants a certainty-based close, we can structure off NOI.
If not, we respect the position and step back.”


Step 4: Know Your Walk-Away Line

“At 10-cap math, this is a ~$5M asset.
We don’t bridge $4M with hope.”


Final Truth — CEO Lens

This is:

  • A good asset

  • In a strong market

  • Being sold at the wrong price

Passing on a Cat-3 deal is not failure.
It is discipline.

Discipline keeps capital safe, lenders confident, and reputations intact.


Contact
Jai Thompson
Managing Partner
Dream SMART Holdings LLC | Pretty Boi Estates™
📧
MrJai@kingjairealestategroup.zohodesk.com

📞 Call or Text: 980-353-2408